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Identifying geopolitical shocks in VARs: maybe let go off the recursive schemes already
This post is based on my (at the time of writing) ongoing research project about the transmission channels of geopolitical tensions. Stay tuned for the full manuscript 🙂 Incredible identification assumptions: 35th anniversary? Due to international developments during the last couple of years, the macroeconomic effects of geopolitical developments have become a hot-topic in economics.…
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Russian sabre rattling and the Finnish economy – Some evidence of inflationary effects
As a result of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the prevalence of rogue states at the international stage has once again become undeniable. Besides the obvious humanitarian suffering, power politics also has macroeconomic consequences. As seen in Ukraine, fighting a war takes a huge toll on employment and human capital as working force…
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Juho Pitkäranta, Economist 